Attendance & Attainment Relationship Tool | National Attendance Portal

Important: this tool describes association in the data you provide. It does not prove that attendance causes a particular grade, and it should never be used to cap expectations for an individual young person.

1. Add your cohort data

One learner per line: attendance percentage, attainment outcome. Names are not needed.

Outcome measure

Cohort / year group

Paste data

Or drop a CSV file here
The first two columns should be attendance and outcome. Processing stays in this browser.

Privacy: the analysis runs locally in the browser. The page does not need pupil names and does not upload the dataset to the National Attendance Portal.

2. Explore a scenario

Once a cohort has been analysed, enter an attendance figure to see the outcome associated with the fitted cohort trend.

Attendance %

Modelled cohort outcome

This is a descriptive estimate from the cohort trend, not an individual prediction.

National Attendance Portal

Attendance & Attainment Relationship Summary

3. Relationship results

Add at least 3 valid learner records, then select Analyse relationship.

Your clearest result

The main chart shows the average attainment outcome for pupils in each attendance band. For GCSE 9–1, if each row contains a pupil's average GCSE grade, each bar is the average of those pupil averages.

Average attainment by attendance band

How to read this: each bar represents one attendance group. The height of the bar is that group's average grade or outcome. The pupil count is shown beneath each bar.

Attendance band	Pupils	Average grade / outcome	Median

What could a +2 percentage-point attendance improvement look like? Benchmark scenario

This comparison starts with the actual pupils in your cohort. The blue bars show their actual average attainment. The green bars show the outcome associated with moving each pupil's attendance up by 2 percentage points on the fitted cohort relationship (capped at 100% attendance).

–Current average attendance

–+2 point attendance benchmark

–Actual average outcome

–Modelled benchmark outcome

Actual average outcomeModelled outcome at +2 attendance points

Important: this is a benchmark scenario, not a forecast or promise. It assumes the cohort's observed attendance–attainment relationship continued if attendance were 2 percentage points higher. Other factors also affect attainment.

Deeper relationship analysis Optional

This section looks at every pupil individually. It helps analysts understand the strength of the relationship, but the bar chart above is usually the easiest result to communicate to staff, governors and families.

–Learners analysed

–Correlation (r)

–R²

–Modelled outcome change per +2 attendance points

Individual pupil relationship

Each dot is one pupil. Further right means higher attendance; higher up means a stronger attainment outcome. The line shows the overall trend across the cohort.

One pupilOverall trend

What this tells you

Use with care

The bar chart reports averages for this cohort; it does not predict what any individual pupil will achieve.
Correlation does not establish causation.
Attendance and attainment can both be influenced by disadvantage, SEND/ASN/ALN, health, mobility, prior attainment and other factors.
Small attendance bands can give unstable averages, so always look at the number of pupils in each band.
Use the analysis to ask better questions and target support — not to lower expectations.

UK evidence & qualification links

Useful official sources for interpreting the analysis in the relevant national context.

England — attendance & attainmentDepartment for Education evidence on the association between attendance and attainment. Scotland — National QualificationsNational 5, Higher and Advanced Higher grading information. Wales — attendance statistics & guidanceWelsh Government attendance and absence resources. Northern Ireland — education statisticsDepartment of Education statistics, including pupil attendance and school performance.

Scotland note: Standard Grade is included only for legacy datasets. Current National 5, Higher and Advanced Higher courses are graded A–D (or No Award).